Regional Power Competition in the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa is one of the world’s most sensitive and strategic regions. It overlooks vital shipping lanes that connect Asia and Europe, shares a maritime border with the Middle East, and has thousands of miles of Indian Ocean coastline. The region is also home to Africa’s second most populous country, Ethiopia; one of the continent’s most important ports, Djibouti; and Chinese, American, and other military bases. But the Horn’s deep political tensions and history of conflict make it difficult to engage in effective diplomacy.

Hudson Institute, in collaboration with the Israel-Africa Institute, is conducting a series of webinars analyzing this important region, especially the role that outside actors play.

In this episode, experts discuss what regional powers such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye, and Qatar are doing in the Horn, their strategies and motivations, and the impact they might have on the region.

Speakers:

Joshua Meservey, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Rashid Abdi, Director of Research, Sahan Research

Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa Director, International Crisis Group

Asher Lubotzky, Senior Research Fellow, Israel-Africa Relations Institute

Key Conclusions 

• The Horn of Africa is characterized by complex geopolitical competition, with diverse interests and strategies leading to potential conflicts.
• The Saudi approach is generally conservative, relying on traditional diplomacy, while the UAE takes a more aggressive posture, even supporting non-state actors.
• There is a significant risk of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which could involve external actors like Egypt and escalate regional instability.
• The leadership dynamics within organizations like the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) complicate conflict resolution efforts due to Eritrea’s isolationist stance.
• The geopolitical actions of external powers (e.g., UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel) play a crucial role in shaping alliances and conflicts in the region, with implications extending beyond the Horn of Africa.

Key insights 

• Geostrategic Importance: The Horn of Africa serves not only as a maritime corridor but also as a focal point for competing international interests, underscored by its proximity to critical shipping routes. The heightened engagement of GCC nations signifies its growing importance on the global stage.
• Military Presence and Policy: Through military fortifications in Somalia, Turkey exemplifies a model of aggressive foreign policy aimed at increasing regional influence. This growth indicates a strategic shift within Turkey to redefine its role and expand its reach in East Africa, showcasing how military presence can serve both security and diplomatic objectives.
• Economic Influence of the UAE: The UAE’s acquisition of ports along the East African coast reflects a broader strategy aimed at establishing economic footholds in emerging markets. This approach aligns with China’s focus on infrastructure investment, which not only serves economic purposes but also enhances strategic leverage over the region.
• Diplomatic Engagements: Qatar’s unique positioning as a mediator amidst geopolitical strife emphasizes the multifaceted engagement required in modern diplomacy. Its ability to maintain functional relationships despite limited military power highlights the significance of soft power in conflict resolution.
• Shifting Alliances: As the regional dynamics evolve, the relationship complexities between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey are revealing a fracturing alliance system. The distinct strategic priorities of these nations could contribute to destabilizing relationships and exacerbate conflicts.
• Risks of Wider Conflict: The deep-seated tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, compounded by external interests, suggest a looming threat of regional conflict that could engulf neighboring countries. The potential for escalation highlights the need for enhanced diplomatic oversight.
• Call for International Diplomacy: The experts’ conclusions point towards the urgency for international diplomatic efforts to manage the interconnected regional conflicts effectively. Given the Horn of Africa’s delicate geopolitical balance, proactive engagement from external powers is crucial to prevent further destabilization.